André Torres

Covid vaccine rollout was perceived and executed very differently across Europe. Throughout 2021 and 2022, the effects and efficacy of vaccination were widely debated. In the EU, the joint purchase of vaccines made it feisible to every country to every member state to have a complete vaccination. The main distinguishing factors were the overall efficiency of the vaccination program and its distribuiton strategy. Crussialy, public perception was also very different across Europe, with countries having very different vaccination rates, despite their equalization in means to obtain full coverage.

So how did the vaccination level influence the covid death rate?

I chose June 15th as the start date. It was a period with relatively low incidence rate with the vaccination having started already early that year, and the rollout at this point reaching the bulk of the active population. I stoped the analysis after one year. The number of strains had grown, as well as the number of booster shots, which adds complexity to the problem and the analysis.

We can see that this time period encompasses a large incidence peak, or rather a modulation of several infection peaks throughout Europe. For each day we can represent the death rate (per hundred thousand inhabitants) and the 'full' vaccination level.

We can see the evolution of both vaccination and deaths. It is particularly visible how the countries that had a higher level of vaccination before the large spike in infection rate suffered a much reduced loss of life. The correlation is strong. however not linear. The countries with the lowest death rates achieved so with around 70-80 %. To the naked eye the correlation seems super-linear, hinting at a compounding effect, either because highly vaccinated societies overcome the infections faster and spreading the infections less; or because the same factors that lead to higher vaccinations also help with the mitigation of the spread, driven mainly by awareness.